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Admiral's Stock Advice - Subject: Market Overview

Market Sector Rotation

[Man With Data]


...economically sensitive cyclical issues like Machinery, Metals, and Papers did very well indeed, as did the Oils and Oil Service stocks.
The market's sector rotation this week was awesome, as old favorites were given an old-fashioned spanking, while economically sensitive cyclical issues like Machinery, Metals, and Papers did very well indeed, as did the Oils and Oil Service stocks.

For good measure, the Internet stocks were beaten up, as were the on-line brokers. To be sure, those vast armies of clever men and women who quit their jobs to make their fortune in trading stocks, got a real comeuppance. They love the Nifty Fifty and the Internets, and have bid them up like crazy.

Now that their favorite stocks have begun to come down, these heavily margined players will wind up in the dumpster. The tide is going out, and we see who isn't wearing a bathing suit, and it sure is not a very pretty sight.

The negative news that came out regarding some long-time favorites included:

  • IBM achieved their numbers through accounting treatment.
  • INTEL could be adversely affected by slowing sales growth in computers.
  • PFIZER announced that second quarter profits will rise 9%, and not 20% as estimated by analysts,
  • SUN MICROSYSTEMS announced that business could be hurt if purchases are delayed by customers focusing on their year 2000 problems.

Let's see how a number of these issues have been faring:

Stock12 Month RangeToday's CloseToday's Change
AMGEN27 1/4 - 81 3/866 13/16- 2 1/16
COMPAQ22 15/16 - 51 1/423 5/8Unchanged
CISCO41 1/8 - 120105 11/16- 4 5/8
IBM106 - 199 1/4170 3/8- 7 3/8
LUCENT26 11/16 - 6756 15/16- 1 1/16
MICROSOFT40 15/16 - 95 5/886 5/8- 2 1/4
PFIZER86 - 150 1/8127 1/16- 2 15/16
QUALCOMM37 3/4 - 177142- 15 1/4
MCI WORLDCOM39 - 94 1/484 3/4- 3 13/16
SUN MICROSYSTEMS19 1/8 - 7254 15/16- 5

Although these sell-offs have been considerable, there is still much downside potential, in view of the generally bloated P.E.'s. And don't try to play "how low is low". No one knows when any stock will have reached the bottom of course, but it sure could be a lot lower from here. Stay tuned.

The Market Pro - April 16, 1999


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